Guest Post: Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis
Editor's Note: Silvia Sgherri is a Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund, where she has contributed to recent editions of the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe. Her views do not represent those of the IMF.
While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? A recent IMF Working Paper suggests that euro area sovereign spreads tend to co-move over time as they are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there seems to be evidence of increased financial market awareness about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors’ frailty and future debt dynamics.
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