PSD Blog - The World Bank Group

Weekend Reading

Regulatory failure, special interests, and financial sector lobbying: European Union edition.

Negative interest rates on T-bills: This time is different.

"The fact that oil is trading at $80 a barrel in this climate should tell you that it is trading more as a financial asset than on supply/demand imbalances".

California is doing its part in the fight against deflation, one university at a time.

The recession is having quite an impact on migration trends in the United States. Plus, our People Move blog looks at new remittance data.

Tyler Cowen describes these two posts from Paul Krugman and Brad Delong as "critically important stuff and two of the best recent economics blog posts, in some time."

War is brewing in the financial blogosphere.

Matthew Yglesias thinks that Chinese leverage over the US is overblown.

More emerging market attempts to stop the appreciation of their currencies.

Finally, as the US gets ready for the Thanksgiving holiday, Adam Gopnik analyzes our hunger for cookbooks.

The Curious Indian Entrepreneur

I attended a session from yesterday's Entrepreneurship and Growth Conference on "Indian Entrepreneurial Success in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom". RAND corporation's Krishna B Kumar attempted to explain the extraordinary successes of Indian expatriate entrepreneurs in these three countries, arguing that much can be attributed to observable differences such as education, family ties, and choice of sector.

In the United States, the typical Indian entrepreneur has an average business income that is substantially higher than the national average and is higher than any other immigrant group. Net annual income in the United States is 60 percent higher than the overall average. Meanwhile, in Canada and the UK, Indian entrepreneurs make similar incomes as other immigrants, but employ more employees than almost any other ethnic group.

What explains these differences? The authors attribute around 50 percent of this success to higher rates of education. For example, in the United States 68 percent of Indians have college degrees, which is twice the rate for whites. This is also true for Canada, where immigrants are largely admitted on a points based system that rewards higher education.

Today in Capital Controls

Yesterday I suggested that emerging market economies, rather than the United States, were better poised to criticize China's currency policy. It looks like, rather than criticizing China's policy, many are simply trying replicate it. Brazil and Taiwan are leading the way:

Asian currencies came under pressure on Thursday as a move from Brazil to further curb foreign inflows sparked fears that other countries would follow suit. Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced last month.

Speculative flows have now reached the point where many emerging market currencies have hit levels that threaten to undermine their export sectors.

So far most emerging market economies have managed the problem by intervening in currency markets to slow the appreciation of their currencies. However, Brazil and Taiwan have taken more dramatic action, imposing capital controls designed to limit the appreciation of their currencies.

Speculation has risen that other countries will follow their lead.

“Recent measures from Brazil and Taiwan curbing capital inflows send a clear signal: emerging market policymakers are far away from accepting a sustained reallocation of portfolio capital from the west, and its liquidity and currency implications,” said David Bloom at HSBC.

Taiwan's decision to ban foreigners from putting money into time deposits seems to be working. Investors have pulled out roughly 12 percent of this 'hot' money. Taiwan's success, and Brazil's apparent determination, are likely to encourage others to take a more assertive stance.

Low interest rates in the West, coupled with a fixed renminbi and weaker dollar, have left many emerging markets somewhere between a rock and a hard place. They now must try to avoid excessive currency appreciation without appearing hostile to the foreign investment that is fueling much of their growth.

The global economy is unlikely to reach any sort of equilibrium for a very long time.

In search of PSD’s “holy grail”

The “holy grail” for those working in PSD is the scalable and sustainable business model that engages the poor while delivering social and developmental outcomes. Finding the PSD grail will potentially empower large numbers of poor men and women to find their own way out of poverty as well as generating, on a commercial basis, socially desirable goods and services. But there have been many false trails in the quest for the PSD grail. Among them are supply chain development initiatives that remain external to the economic lives of the poor, and heavily subsidized models that engage the poor but have limited prospects for wider replication, scaling or longer term sustainability.

Occasionally something comes along that captures our imagination and seems to offer a glimpse of the elusive grail. Mohammed Yunus' recent speech on social business at IFC was a widely reported example. Another similar but smaller event was more quietly inspirational. Harold Rosen, IFC’s former in-house serial entrepreneur and inspiration behind many of the IFC’s small and medium enterprise interventions, returned to IFC to discuss the performance of his Grassroots Business Fund (GBF), which was spun off from IFC in 2008.  

Is the US the appropriate renminbi critic?

Free Exchange has observed over the past few days that the blogosphere, financial press, and political punditry have put forth a plethora of opinions about Chinese economic policy. Let's take a look at some of the latest:

Bill Owens argues for closer cooperation in just about everything:

The US-China relationship is a vital interest for the two countries and the world. Throughout history, great powers have tended to become adversaries. Now, for a few years, we have a chance to break that cycle. It will take strong and enduring commitment on both sides. But a new and engaging relationship is imperative for our common good

Martin Wolf puts wishful words into the mouth of Barack Obama:

At a time of such weak global demand, yours is a 'beggar thy neighbor' policy. You complain about the protectionist actions I have implemented. But their impact will be trivial compared with China's 'exchange rate protectionism'. This policy will shift the costs of adjustment on to China's trading partners.

The Lure of Local Bonds

IFC announced yesterday that it will issue a $43m local currency bond in Central Africa, a first for the World Bank institution, and also a first for a non-local financial institution. This is IFC's second local currency bond in Sub-Saharan Africa, following its issuance of a West African Kola Bond in late 2006:

The 20 billion Central African francs ($43 million equivalent), five-year tenor bond will be listed on the regional exchange in Libreville and on the Doula Stock Exchange. It will be tax-exempt in all six countries in the Economic and Monetary Community of the Central African zone. The countries are Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. All proceeds will be reinvested in the zone.

IFC's timing is quite prescient. As the recovery from the crisis continues to be lopsided, strongly favoring emerging markets, there should be substantial outside investor interest in these types local-currency bonds (see previous post).

Furthermore, increased dollar volatility will enhance the attractiveness of local currency bonds in two ways. First, judging by the market's negative reaction to Ben Bernanke's dollar reassurances, foreign investors should be more willing to take on local currency risk, as they remain convinced that dollar depreciation will continue for some time.

Second, while foreign investors seem sanguine about the dollar's weakness, local investors from fragile emerging markets, such as those in Central Africa, are more likely to recall the dollar's upside potential. Should another crisis occur, triggering a flight to safety along the lines of what we saw in the aftermath of last year's crisis, emerging market currencies will be the first to fall. Local currency bonds offer a layer of insurance against the damage that such a precipitous outflow of capital can cause, making them an attractive option for local businesses and investors alike. 

World Bank Events Shout-Out

The World Bank and IFC are featuring several excellent events this week that are well-worth attending.

On Thursday and Friday, a Conference on Entrepreneurship and Growth will be held in at the World Bank's main headquarters. Topics range from "Promoting Business Formalization and Growth" to "Firm Dynamics and Size". Dozens of speakers will be featured, from both inside and outside the Bank.

Next, Infoshop will be hosting a discussion this Thursday with Robert Skidelsky, who has just finished his latest book, Keynes: The return of the master. I am especially fond of Skidelsky, and look forward to hearing his thoughts on how Keynesianism is back with a vengeance as a result of the financial crisis. The conversation begins at 12:30pm EST.

All events are open to the public. If you are not in the Washington area or are unable to attend, fear not! I will be Tweeting highlights from each event as they unfold. (If you missed this morning's conference on achieving scale in entrepreneurship, you can view a summary on Twitter).

The Infinite Potential of Mobile Banking

Brookings has released a report on the state of access to finance in developing countries, taking a specific look at the lessons learned from the mobile banking sector in Kenya. The report paints a troubling picture of the state of financial access in many developing countries, but then gives some reasons for optimism.

First, the bad news:

Access to financial services, and indeed overall financial development, is crucial to economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet in Sub-Saharan Africa, only 1 in 5 households have access to financial services. In 2007, over 70 percent of Kenyan households did not have bank accounts or relied on informal sources of finance. In 2006, there were only 35 bank branches in Benin, a country with a population of 7 million. This lack of formal financial services limits market exchanges, increases risk and limits opportunities to save. Without formal financial services, households rely on informal services that are associated with high transaction costs.

Weekend Reading

The FT profiles each of the Federal Reserve's doves and hawks.

Plus, the case for Fed independence.

Does car sharing take cars off the road? Or just put walkers into cars?

Another PR disaster for Goldman.

Paul Krugman praises the German labor market, while Yves Smith takes it one step further.

Hong Kong's leader, Donald Tsang, thinks that the United States is following in Japan's footsteps.

Ghost Towns in China. Or, the flaws of GDP.

"Excluding OPEC and China, America's balance of trade has improved". A weaker dollar/stronger yuan can help the latter, but may end up exacerbating the former.

Where the jobs aren't.

Will freer trade create stable food prices?

Finally, The World Bank is having a Conference on Entrepreneurship and Growth throughout next week, which is open to the public. Recommended.

How relevant is the location of informal businesses for policy?

A distinction is often made between informal firms operating within, versus outside, household premises. In some sense, the former represent the quintessential informal firms beset with a number of problems, such as low efficiency, etc. Policies aimed at bringing informal firms into the fold of the formal sector could therefore be expected to have a bigger impact when targeted toward informal firms operating within, rather than outside, the household.

A survey of informal firms in Ivory Coast, Madagascar and Mauritius conducted by Enterprise Surveys provides some support to this idea. The survey shows that 81 percent of the firms in Ivory Coast, 72 percent in Madagascar and 49 percent in Mauritius operate within household premises. The figures below show the percentage of firms that report various benefits from registering. Overall, a larger percentage of firms located within household premises expect the various benefits from registration. These preliminary findings suggest that understanding the types of informal firms that operate within and outside household premises could be an interesting area for future research.