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September 25, 2006

Autos and global warming: a perfect storm

Ever since the book (and subsequent film) came out, the 'perfect storm' analogy has become rapidly cliche, but events this week bring it to mind. The State of California files a lawsuit against the six largest US and Japanese automakers, claiming damages for their contribution to global warming. The Alliance of Auto Manufacturers retort that the State approves all vehicles sold - so who is responsible?

Over in Europe, the Secretary General of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (among others) complains of over-regulation and excessive attention to environmental issues during a workshop on the one year anniversary of the EU integrated industrial policy. A tip from me to Hungarian MEP (that's Member of the European Parliament) Edit Herczog, who spoke at the workshop: defending business against green critics with analogies to melting icebergs is probably not the way to go these days.

So lots of finger pointing (in opposite directions). Will no one make the business case for sustainability? Thank you Richard Branson, who came forward at the Clinton Global Initiative to announce the funding mechanism of Virgin Fuels, which will focus on commercial opportunities for cleaner fuels and renewable energy.

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Transportation accounts for approx a third of the GHG emissions in developed countries. Many of the other sources are large emitters (like power plants) who can be controled by Kyoto-like treaties. Consequently transportation (thus auto-makers) become an obvious target. And they are an even better target because they do everything they can to avoid regulation.

People like Branson can pour $3B in new fuel research, the facts remains : there's no convenient alternative for fuel. "Bio" fuel have the same impact on environnement as oil (but it's green so nobody care), hydrogen is just a storage, not a source, etc. Consequently, one of the more compelling path is to enhance car's efficiencies both for the inputs et outputs. Obviously there's a lot to do to lower use of individual transportation too.


The California lawsuit is an interesting one - with the state government getting creative to force companies to do more on global warming when it is the federal government that sets vehicle fuel-economy standards nationwide (and shows no sign of tightening those).

Another option would be higher taxes on fuel, but passing costs on to the consumer may still be a political step too far, even in California.


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