PSD Blog - The World Bank Group

Global e-government conference

The University of Maryland 2006 Global E-Government for Development Conference will be held March 22-23. Should be good.

Mapping the global future

‘Mapping the Global Future' is the latest unclassified report from the US National Intelligence Council. This forward-looking scenario based report focuses on the contradictions of globalization, the impact of the rise of China and India, and new security risks. More on specific topics below the fold.

More avian flu scenarios

An impressive collection of risk scenarios and business continuity resources from the Global Business Network. Many I had seen before. Some of the best new ones include:

• Bob Horn’s scary worst-case scenario timeline
• Bob's mess-map of interactions between systematic actors
• Maplecroft’s pandemic risk map and movie

Update: A GBN Webconference, Birds, Bugs, and Business: Preparing for Crisis.

‘The Global Agenda’

Significant progress has been made in advancing the global development agenda [in 2005]. Now donor countries must move beyond commitments to developing concrete plans that make effective use of aid – plans that deliver results for the poor. For their part, developing countries must continue their efforts to build transparent and accountable institutions that promote growth and respond to the needs of the poor… Both rich and poor countries will have to think about how to make effective use of the additional aid that has been promised.

That is WB President Paul Wolfowitz in Global Agenda, the magazine of the Davos Forum. Everyone from Stiglitz and Bhagwati to Chomsky and Angelina Jolie also have pieces in the issue.

The ‘solidarity tax’ debate

Countries will be voting tomorrow on a ‘solidarity tax’ on airline tickets to generate increased revenues for development assistance. Guy Sebban of the ICC hates the idea:

The long and difficult road to ending poverty is potholed with well-meaning but misguided intentions. The latest do-good scheme, an airline tax to fund health care in the developing world, will not improve the lives of the poor. The tax will penalize the very people intended to profit from it and divert attention from proven methods of fighting poverty, such as lifting barriers to trade.

Larry Elliot of the Guardian is a fan – and sees no reason to stop there. He resurrects the idea of a tax on foreign exchange transactions as well. Thoughts?

Dear Bono…

I am afraid that your energies have been misdirected when they are used to advance an aid agenda that is based on two obsolete and counter- productive premises: first, that aid for Africa must be spent in Africa rather than outside it and, second, that we must work to increase aid flows to a target of 0.7 per cent of gross national product…

In a recent interview, you said that you expected your music would endure forever but poverty would have ended in a hundred years. I wish you good luck on your music. But not even a hundred years would suffice to end poverty if you fail to correct your course.

A letter from Jagdish Bhagwati to Bono in the Financial Times. Bhagwati preaches focusing attention on ‘absorptive capacity.’ He also argues that absorptive capacity is far less of a problem if increased aid for Africa is spent outside the country - for example, on vaccines and AIDS research.

Update: More Bhagwati on development in Global Agenda. And Owen Barder questions many of Bhagwati's points.

Chronology of world oil prices

The EIA has an interesting chart of the world nominal oil market and prices since 1970. (via Cynical-C)

Who are China’s entrepreneurs?

Controlling for institutional environment, entrepreneurs in China are much more likely to have family members who are entrepreneurs as well as childhood friends who became entrepreneurs, suggesting that social environment plays an important role in entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs also differ strongly from non-entrepreneurs in their attitudes toward risks and their work-leisure preferences, echoing Schumpeter. Finally, failed entrepreneurs score the worst on aptitude tests, but have the best selfreported performance in school and perceive the business environment as least favorable.

That's the latest from Djankov, Qian, Roland, and Zhuravskaya. More on doing business in China.

Finance constraints and the business environment

Three new working papers that I had been meaning to write about. Never got around to it.

• How important are financing constraints? The role of finance in the business environment, by Maksimovic, Ayyagari and Demirguc-Kunt
• Can foreign portfolio investment bridge the small firm financing gap around the world?, by April Knill
• Taking the bad with the good: volatility of foreign portfolio investment and financial constraints of small firms, by April Knill

Our small and medium enterprise (SME) database has also been updated.

"The future we will create…"

That is the theme of TED 2006. A great event with great speakers - as always. Lots of power bloggers are there: Ethan Zukerman, Jamais Cascio and Loic Le Meur. Of course also TEDBlog.